Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

What you need to know

This market is asking: if Anthropic goes public on a stock exchange, how much will the whole company be worth on that first trading day? Market capitalization — or 'market cap' — is simply the share price multiplied by the total number of shares, giving you a rough dollar value for the entire company. A Yes to any bracket means the company lands in that size range; the options span from under $1.25 trillion up to $2.75 trillion and beyond, with a separate outcome if no IPO happens at all by end of 2027. The market settles based on Anthropic's official closing price on its very first day of trading on a public stock exchange, then calculates total company value from that price. If Anthropic never goes public by December 31, 2027, everything resolves to the 'No IPO' outcome instead. One edge case worth knowing: if trading is interrupted that first day — say, a circuit breaker halts the session — the market uses whatever official closing price exists, or rolls to the next day with a valid close. No relevant news about an Anthropic IPO was provided. The one headline available is about nuclear energy in New York and New Jersey, which has no clear connection to this market. The kind of news that would actually matter here: any announcement from Anthropic about IPO plans, a new funding round that hints at its private valuation, or broader signals about the AI company IPO environment. There are two layers of uncertainty stacked on top of each other. First: will Anthropic even go public by 2027? That is genuinely unknown — many well-funded private tech companies delay or skip IPOs entirely. Second: if it does go public, what will investors decide it is worth on day one? AI company valuations have swung wildly in recent years, and Anthropic's private valuation has shifted dramatically with each funding round. Both questions are wide open, which is why the odds are spread across many brackets.

The odds right now

• $1.25–$1.5T+11.5 pts (1w)28%
• $1.5–$1.75T+7.1 pts (1w)15%
• <$1.25T-5.5 pts (1w)14%
• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5 pts (1w)12%
• $2.25–$2.5T-3.0 pts (1w)11%
• $3.0T+-0.5 pts (1w)7%
• $2.75–$3.0T6%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.4 pts (1w)6%
• $2.5–$2.75T-7.5 pts (1w)3%
• No IPO by December 31, 2027-1.3 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2027

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

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