Bitcoin above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 4, 2026. There are three separate price thresholds here: $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000. A 'Yes' on any one of them means Bitcoin is trading above that number at that specific moment. A 'No' means it landed at or below it. Think of it like setting three different height bars and asking whether Bitcoin clears each one. Settlement is decided by one single data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (ET) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on August 4, 2026. Only Binance counts here, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. The price just needs to be strictly higher than the threshold, not equal to it. If Bitcoin is trading at exactly $60,000, that resolves No for the $60,000 market. The result is locked in at that one moment, regardless of what the price does the rest of the day. No specific recent news was matched to this market. In general, the kinds of developments worth watching for would be major regulatory decisions about crypto, shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate policy, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, or any significant security or exchange-related events that could move the market over the coming year. Bitcoin is genuinely hard to forecast over a one-year horizon, which is roughly how far away August 4, 2026 is. The market currently prices all three thresholds as very likely to clear, with odds ranging from 95% to 99%, so the question is less 'will Bitcoin be above these levels' and more 'what would have to go dramatically wrong for it not to be.' Real tail risks exist: a major market crash, a regulatory shock, or an exchange-level crisis could all push prices down sharply in ways nobody can reliably anticipate this far out.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,00099%
• 58,00098%
• 60,00095%
• 62,00076%
• 64,00029%
• 66,0004%
• 68,0001%
• 70,0000%
• 74,0000%
• 72,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.