Bitcoin above ___ on August 5?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple price question: will Bitcoin be above a specific dollar amount at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 5, 2026? There are three separate price thresholds here, $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000, each its own market. A Yes means Bitcoin's price is above that number at that exact moment. A No means it is at or below it. Think of it like a snapshot, not a trend: only one second of one day matters. The market settles based on one very specific data point: the closing price of the 12:00 noon (Eastern Time) one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT trading pair on August 5, 2026. Binance is the only source that counts, not Coinbase, not Kraken, not any other exchange or price tracker. If that single candle closes above the threshold, it resolves Yes. At or below it, No. No averaging, no daily high or low, just that one minute. No specific recent news was matched to this market. For a question like this, the kinds of developments worth watching over the coming year would include major regulatory decisions about crypto, large institutional moves into or out of Bitcoin, macroeconomic shifts like interest rate changes, and any significant security or market infrastructure events that could affect Bitcoin's price broadly. Bitcoin's price more than a year from now is genuinely hard to forecast. That said, the market currently prices the $56,000 threshold at around 98%, reflecting that Bitcoin already trades well above these levels today, so the main uncertainty is really whether something dramatic and negative happens between now and August 2026. A major crash, regulatory shock, or market crisis could push prices down. But the lopsided odds signal that the market sees those outcomes as unlikely, not impossible.

The odds right now

• 54,000100%
• 56,00098%
• 58,00096%
• 60,00089%
• 62,00063%
• 64,00023%
• 66,0005%
• 68,0001%
• 70,0001%
• 72,0000%
• 74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 5, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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