Bitcoin price on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: where will the Bitcoin price land on August 4, 2026? Specifically, it offers three price ranges, and you pick which one will contain the price at that moment. A Yes on the top range (62,000 to 64,000) means Bitcoin is trading in that window at noon that day. A Yes on a lower range means it has fallen back, and a higher range means it has climbed. Only one range can win. The market settles based on one very specific number: the closing price of the 1-minute Bitcoin/USDT candle on Binance at exactly noon Eastern Time on August 4, 2026. That single data point, from Binance only, decides everything. Prices from other exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken do not count. If the price lands exactly on a boundary between two ranges, it resolves to the higher one. The mention of 'otherwise resolves No' appears to cover a scenario where Binance data is unavailable. None of the provided recent headlines are meaningfully connected to Bitcoin's price direction. One headline mentions a company called Rhino Bitcoin appearing on a TV broadcast, but that carries no price signal. No relevant crypto news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be major regulatory announcements, large institutional moves, macroeconomic data releases, or significant events on the Binance exchange itself. Predicting Bitcoin's price more than a year out is genuinely very hard. The market currently places the highest probability on the 62,000 to 64,000 range, but Bitcoin is historically one of the most volatile assets in the world. A single large news event, a policy change, a market panic, or a surge of institutional buying could move the price thousands of dollars in either direction within days. The specific noon Binance price also adds a layer of precision: even if the overall level is right, the exact minute could vary.

The odds right now

• 62,000-64,00049%
• 60,000-62,00025%
• 64,000-66,00020%
• 58,000-60,0004%
• 66,000-68,0003%
• 68,000-70,0001%
• 56,000-58,0001%
• 70,000-72,0001%
• 54,000-56,0001%
• >72,0000%
• <54,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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