Bitcoin price on August 9?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks where Bitcoin's price will land on August 9, 2026, split into price range buckets. You pick a range, and if Bitcoin lands in that range at exactly noon Eastern Time that day, that bucket wins. Right now the market thinks the $62,000, $64,000 range is the most likely landing spot, followed by $64,000, $66,000, then $60,000, $62,000. A 'Yes' for any bucket means Bitcoin closes inside that specific range at that specific moment. The market settles using one precise data point: the closing price of a one-minute Bitcoin/USDT candle on Binance at noon Eastern Time on August 9, 2026. Only Binance's BTC/USDT pair counts, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other source. If the price falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, the higher range wins. Any other outcome, such as Binance being unavailable or the price falling outside all listed brackets, resolves to No for that bracket. None of the provided news items connect clearly to Bitcoin's price direction. The most adjacent item is that American Bitcoin, a company backed by the Trump family, posted a second-quarter loss. That is a business story about one company, not a signal about where Bitcoin itself trades. No major Bitcoin-specific catalysts appear in the recent headlines provided. Bitcoin's price over a year-long horizon is genuinely hard to predict, even for experts. Macro events, regulatory changes, large institutional moves, and broader market sentiment can all shift the price by thousands of dollars in days. The market currently spreads its probability across several ranges, with no single bucket above one-third confidence, which reflects real disagreement. Add in that only one specific second on one specific exchange determines the outcome, and small timing swings matter too.

The odds right now

• 62,000-64,00031%
• 64,000-66,00031%
• 60,000-62,00015%
• 66,000-68,00014%
• 58,000-60,0005%
• >72,0003%
• 68,000-70,0003%
• <54,0002%
• 56,000-58,0002%
• 70,000-72,0002%
• 54,000-56,0002%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 9, 2026

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.