Bulgaria Presidential Election: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will win Bulgaria's next presidential election, expected in the fall of 2026. A win for Iliana Iotova means she becomes Bulgaria's president; a win for Andrey Gyurov means he does. The market currently gives Iotova a 53% chance, Gyurov 41%, and former Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov just 4%. In plain terms: the market sees this as a close two-person race, with Iotova holding a modest edge. The market settles on whichever listed candidate officially wins the Bulgarian presidential election, including any second round of voting. Bulgaria uses a two-round system, so if no candidate wins more than half the votes in round one, the top two face each other in a runoff. The official result comes from the Bulgarian Central Election Commission. If the result is somehow still unclear by December 31, 2027, the market closes as 'Other', meaning none of the listed candidates are credited with a win. None of the provided news headlines relate to the Bulgarian presidential election. There are no recent reports here about Bulgarian politics, polling, or the candidates. If you want to follow this market, the kinds of developments worth watching would be: official candidate announcements, Bulgarian opinion polls, and any major political events inside Bulgaria between now and the fall 2026 election. Several real sources of uncertainty make this genuinely hard to call. The election is still more than a year away, and Bulgarian politics can shift quickly. Candidate lists are not finalized, meaning new entrants could change the race entirely. Bulgaria uses a two-round system, so first-round dynamics and voter turnout matter a lot. The market's 53% vs 41% split shows this is not a dominant favorite situation. A lot can change in polling, alliances, and public sentiment before voting day.

The odds right now

• Iliana Iotova+10.0 pts (1w)52%
• Аndrey Gyurov-1.0 pts (1w)39%
• Nikolai Denkov-0.1 pts (1w)4%
• Boyko Borissov+1.4 pts (1w)3%
• Yanaki Stoilov-0.4 pts (1w)1%
• Vassil Terziev-1.5 pts (1w)1%
• Rosen Zhelyazkov+0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Natalia Kiselova-0.1 pts (1w)1%
• Kostadin Kostadinov+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Blagomir Kotsev-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Krum Zarkov0%
• Atanas Atanasov-0.1 pts (1w)0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves November 30, 2026

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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