Next Prime Minister of Sweden: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will become Sweden's Prime Minister after the September 2026 election. A 'Yes' for any candidate means that person officially takes the job as PM following that election. Right now the market strongly favors Magdalena Andersson, the Social Democrat leader and former PM, returning to power, with current PM Ulf Kristersson as the main alternative and far-right leader Jimmie Åkesson as a distant third. The market settles on whoever is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister after the September 13, 2026 election. The key word is 'officially assumes office': a temporary or caretaker PM does not count. If coalition talks drag on and no permanent PM is in place by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to 'Other' instead. The source of truth is the Swedish government's own official records, backed up by credible news reporting. None of the provided news headlines relate to Sweden. They cover UK politics and a US Senate race. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of developments worth watching would be Swedish opinion polls, any major party announcements, or shifts in coalition dynamics ahead of the September 2026 vote. The main uncertainty is how coalition math plays out after the vote. Sweden's parliament often produces fragmented results where no single bloc has a clear majority, meaning the PM pick depends on which parties can form a working government, not just which party wins the most seats. Kristersson's current government relies on tight bloc cooperation, and Andersson would need her own alliance to hold. Polls can shift in 14 months, and coalition negotiations after the vote can take weeks or longer.

The odds right now

• Magdalena Andersson+2.0 pts (1w)81%
• Ulf Kristersson17%
• Jimmie Åkesson-0.1 pts (1w)3%
• Ebba Busch+0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Anna-Karin Hatt0%
• Nooshi Dadgostar-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• Simona Mohamsson0%
• Amanda Lind0%
• Daniel Helldén0%
• Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 13, 2026

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and assumes office as Prime Minister of Sweden following the next parliamentary election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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