Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory (Lower Farage brackets): how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: if a by-election is held in Clacton, how big will the winning candidate's lead be over the runner-up? The three options on offer are all about the size of that gap, measured in percentage points of the total vote. 'Farage 30%+' means the winner beats second place by more than 30 percentage points, a landslide. '20-30%' is a solid but smaller lead. '10-20%' is a competitive, narrower win. The market currently treats a massive margin as by far the most likely outcome. Once the Clacton by-election is held and the official vote count is confirmed, the market settles based on the gap between the first-place and second-place candidates' vote shares. So if the winner gets 60% and the runner-up gets 25%, the margin is 35 percentage points, which resolves to the '30%+' bracket. The official source is Tendring District Council and the UK Parliament. If results are not confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. A recount, if called, keeps the market open until it concludes. None of the recent news provided relates to the Clacton by-election. There are no relevant headlines to draw on here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be: an official announcement of the election date, candidate nominations, and any published opinion polls for the constituency. The main uncertainty is simply whether something unexpected disrupts what the market treats as a near-certain outcome. At 90%, the market is strongly pricing in a 30-plus point margin, so this is not really a coin toss between equal sides. The genuine open questions are: who the other main candidates will be, how well they campaign, and whether the election date is even confirmed soon. A later-than-expected date or a surprisingly strong rival candidate could shift the margin into a lower bracket.

The odds right now

• Farage 30%++5.5 pts (1w)84%
• Farage 20-30%-3.8 pts (1w)8%
• Farage 10-20%+5.5 pts (1w)8%
• Farage <10%+0.3 pts (1w)4%
• Count Binface-3.3 pts (1w)3%
• Other-2.1 pts (1w)1%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 13, 2026

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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