Cuba nationwide internet/power outage by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Cuba will suffer a total, nationwide internet blackout caused by a power failure, sometime before a given deadline. A Yes means the whole country loses internet access because the electrical grid goes down, not just a partial or regional disruption. A No means no such event happens before the deadline. There are three separate versions of this market with different deadlines: July 31, August 31, and December 31, 2026, each priced differently based on how much time is left. The market settles Yes only if Cloudflare, the internet monitoring company, officially labels an outage on its Cuba tracking page as both 'Nationwide' in type and 'Power Outage' in cause, with a start time before the deadline. Cloudflare is the sole judge here, not news reports or government statements. One important edge case: if an outage is happening right at the deadline, the market can stay open up to three extra days to wait for Cloudflare to finalize its labels. If Cloudflare never posts a qualifying label, it resolves No. None of the recent news provided is relevant to this market. Cuba's power grid and internet situation are not covered in the headlines given. The kind of news that would matter here includes reports of Cuban electrical grid failures, government energy crisis announcements, or Cloudflare flagging unusual internet traffic drops in Cuba. Cuba's electrical grid has been severely strained in recent years, which is why the December deadline is priced at 77%, reflecting the market's view that an outage is more likely than not over a longer window. The shorter deadlines are priced lower simply because there is less time for the event to occur. The genuine uncertainty is timing: grid collapses are hard to predict precisely. There is also a secondary uncertainty around whether Cloudflare will apply the exact required labels, since the market depends entirely on their specific classification.

The odds right now

• December 3180%
• August 3166%
• July 3133%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare reports a Nationwide internet outage in Cuba, caused by a power outage, which begins any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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