Democratic VP Nominee 2028: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking who will be the Democratic Party's candidate for Vice President in the 2028 US election. A 'Yes' on any named person means that person officially becomes the VP pick on the Democratic ticket. Right now, the market spreads probability across many possible names, with Roy Cooper (former North Carolina governor) leading at 22%, followed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 12% and Gretchen Whitmer at 9%. The remaining probability is spread across other candidates not listed here. The market settles on whoever is formally nominated as the Democratic VP candidate and accepts that nomination, based on official Democratic Party announcements. The deadline is August 10, 2028, which lines up with when the Democratic National Convention would typically take place. One important rule: if the nominee is later replaced before Election Day, the market does not change. It locks in on the first accepted nomination, period. The only relevant news provided is that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, one of the named candidates, recently endorsed a specific candidate in a Michigan Senate primary race. This is a political positioning move, but it does not directly tell us anything about her 2028 VP prospects. No news was provided about the other named candidates or the broader 2028 Democratic ticket picture. This market is genuinely wide open, and that is honest, not evasive. The 2028 Democratic presidential nominee has not been chosen yet, and the VP pick depends entirely on who that nominee is and what kind of running mate they want. Factors like geography, political style, age, and party dynamics all play a role. With over two years until the deadline and the field this fragmented, the market is essentially saying nobody has a strong lead yet.

The odds right now

• Roy Cooper+17.8 pts (1w)22%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+4.5 pts (1w)14%
• Gretchen Whitmer+0.2 pts (1w)9%
• Oprah Winfrey+1.7 pts (1w)7%
• George Clooney-0.1 pts (1w)5%
• Hunter Biden5%
• Zohran Mamdani-0.9 pts (1w)5%
• Andy Beshear+0.1 pts (1w)5%
• Ro Khanna+0.1 pts (1w)4%
• Jared Polis-0.4 pts (1w)4%
• Pete Buttigieg-0.9 pts (1w)4%
• Jon Ossoff-0.5 pts (1w)4%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 10, 2028

This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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