Ethereum above ___ on August 4?: how this market works

What you need to know

These are three separate markets, each asking whether Ethereum's price will be above a specific dollar threshold on a single day next year: August 4, 2026. A 'Yes' means ETH crossed that price line. A 'No' means it didn't. The three thresholds are $1,700, $1,800, and $1,900, and the market checks just one exact moment in time: noon Eastern Time on that date, not the daily average or any other window. Settlement is decided by one precise data point: the closing price of the ETH/USDT trading pair on Binance at exactly the one-minute candle that closes at noon Eastern Time on August 4, 2026. If that single price is above the threshold, the market resolves Yes. If it is at or below it, it resolves No. One important detail: it uses Binance specifically, not Coinbase or any other exchange, so prices elsewhere do not count even if they differ. No specific recent news was provided for this market. The kinds of developments worth watching would be major shifts in Ethereum's network activity or upgrades, broader crypto market trends, regulatory news affecting digital assets, and general macroeconomic conditions that tend to move risk assets like crypto. There are several real sources of uncertainty here. August 2026 is more than a year away, and Ethereum's price has historically moved dramatically in both directions over such periods. The market currently prices the $1,700 threshold at 95%, suggesting participants see that level as fairly likely, but the $1,900 threshold sits at only 19%, showing real disagreement about higher levels. Crypto prices also respond sharply to unpredictable events like regulatory decisions, security incidents, or sudden market sentiment shifts.

The odds right now

• 1,400100%
• 1,500100%
• 1,60099%
• 1,70095%
• 1,80076%
• 1,90023%
• 2,0002%
• 2,1001%
• 2,2001%
• 2,3001%
• 2,4000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.