Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran will lose actual, lasting control of Farsi Island before a set date, with another force taking over in its place. Farsi Island is a small but strategically significant island in the Persian Gulf that Iran has used as a military and naval base for decades. A Yes outcome means another country or force physically controls the island. A No means Iran still holds it, which is the situation today. To resolve Yes, a different state or military force must establish real, stable control over the island before the deadline, either August 31, 2026 or July 31, 2026 depending on which version you are watching. The bar is deliberately high: a temporary raid, airstrike, or nearby naval presence does not count. Even a deal or ceasefire only counts once boots are actually on the ground and control is real. If the situation is messy or contested at the deadline, it resolves No. The provided headlines point to an active and escalating U.S.-Iran standoff as of late July 2026, including Iranian vessels violating a blockade and U.S. senators questioning funding for an Iran war. This suggests real military tension in the region, which is directly relevant context for whether Farsi Island's status could change. No headline specifically reports any threat to or action against Farsi Island itself, so the key thing to watch is whether broader conflict directly targets Iranian-held islands. The market prices this at only 2 to 4 percent, reflecting how rare it is for a country to lose control of a fortified island in a short timeframe. The main uncertainty is not two equal sides but rather a small chance that an already tense conflict escalates sharply and quickly enough to meet the very strict control standard before the deadline. The criteria are also demanding: chaos or damage near the island would not be enough. A clean, confirmed transfer of control would have to happen within months.

The odds right now

• August 314%
• July 312%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.