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Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Resolves Oct 1, 2026·$101 24h vol·geopolitics
$55.2k total volume·Open for 66 days

September 30

1%-49.5%
OutcomeYesNo
September 30

Order Book

September 30

PriceSharesTotal
43.0¢750$323
40.9¢2.0k$818
4.6¢2.0k$92
4.5¢100$5
1.3¢6$0
1.0¢8$0
0.9¢6$0
0.8¢158$1
0.2¢last trade
0.6¢ spread
0.2¢37$0
0.1¢790$1
$1 bids$1.2k asks

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

September 30

1%