Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by...?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Iran loses actual, physical control of Greater Tunb Island before the deadline. Greater Tunb is a small island in the Persian Gulf that Iran has held since 1971, and which the United Arab Emirates also claims. A Yes means another country or authority has genuinely taken over and is running the island. A No means Iran still holds it, which is the situation today and has been for over fifty years. For this to settle Yes, a second party must have physically established control on the island, not just threatened it, bombed it, or briefly touched down on it. A negotiated handover only counts once boots are actually on the ground and control is real. If the situation is murky or contested at the deadline, it resolves No by default. The bar is deliberately high: words, claims, and partial actions do not count. Recent headlines point to an active U.S.-Iran standoff in mid-2026, including Iranian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. Senate debate over funding for what is being described as an Iran war. This suggests regional military tension is elevated, which is relevant context. However, none of the headlines report any direct action against Greater Tunb Island specifically, so the island itself has not been in the news. The market prices Yes at just 2 to 4%, meaning participants see this as very unlikely but not impossible. The honest uncertainty here is mainly about tail risk: could an escalating U.S.-Iran conflict produce a surprise military seizure or forced handover in the next year? That is the real question. Iran has held this island for over half a century with no serious challenge. The main source of unpredictability is the broader conflict, not anything specific to the island itself.

The odds right now

• August 314%
• July 312%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.