Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether a candidate from a party called Restore Britain will win at least one in ten votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. The candidate is Marlon West. A Yes means he reaches that 10% threshold when first-preference votes are counted. A No means he falls short of it. In a race with several candidates, 10% is a meaningful but not enormous share, roughly meaning one out of every ten voters picks him as their first choice. The market settles as Yes if Marlon West's first-preference vote total equals at least 10% of all valid first-preference votes cast in the election. The election is scheduled for July 30, 2026. Results will be confirmed through credible news reporting, with the official Greater Manchester Combined Authority website as the final word if anything is disputed. One edge case to know: if official results are not clearly confirmed by December 31, 2026, the market automatically resolves No regardless of any unofficial tallies. None of the provided news headlines relate to this election or to Marlon West and Restore Britain. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is any published polling for the Greater Manchester mayoral race, news about Restore Britain's campaign activity, or any coverage of the candidate's profile in the region. The market prices this at around 26%, meaning it is considered more likely than not that West falls short of 10%, but far from certain. The core difficulty is that Restore Britain is a newer party with limited public polling in this specific race. Voter turnout, how well the party is organized in Greater Manchester, and how many candidates split the vote all affect the final share. Without local polling data, it is genuinely hard to know how much support the party has built on the ground.

The odds right now

• Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?-1.5 pts (1w)27%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 30, 2026

The 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on July 30, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Marlon West, receives at least 10% of valid first preference votes in the 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral election. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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