Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in August?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how strong the wind gets on top of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire during August 2026, specifically whether the single highest gust recorded all month reaches certain speed thresholds. Mt. Washington is famous for having some of the most extreme winds of any land location on Earth, so even in summer it regularly hits speeds that would be dangerous almost anywhere else. A 'Yes' on the 95 mph tier means at least one reading that month hit 95 miles per hour or faster. The market settles based on the official daily wind records published by the Mt. Washington Weather Observatory for August 2026, using their F6 weather report archive. The number that matters is the single highest wind speed recorded on any one day that month, measured in whole miles per hour. Each threshold (85, 90, 95 mph) resolves independently. Any corrections to the data are accepted until the first September entry is published, after which the record is frozen. None of the provided news headlines relate to Mt. Washington, New England weather, or wind conditions. No relevant recent news was shared for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is any early August weather report from the Mt. Washington Observatory showing unusually high or low wind readings for the month so far. The market is priced at 96 to 97 percent across all three thresholds, which means participants strongly expect winds to exceed 95 mph. Mt. Washington's historical August records make high winds routine, so the real uncertainty here is simply whether something unusual prevents it, like an exceptionally calm August. The main thing to understand is that this is not a close call in the market's view. The small remaining percentage reflects the genuine but historically rare chance that August 2026 stays unusually mild.

The odds right now

• ≥95 mph96%
• ≥85 mph96%
• ≥90 mph96%
• ≥100 mph65%
• ≥105 mph57%
• ≥115 mph42%
• ≥110 mph38%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves September 1, 2026

This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in August, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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