Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Amsterdam get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, and which bucket that number falls into: 18°C (about 64°F), 19°C (about 66°F), or 20°C (about 68°F). Think of it as a guessing game for the peak afternoon temperature on one specific summer day in Amsterdam. The market settles using the highest temperature logged at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so a reading of 19.7°C would count as 19°C, not 20°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 22 data before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for the Netherlands in late July 2026, or a long-range weather outlook for Western Europe that summer. Those forecasts typically only become meaningfully accurate within about two weeks of the date. Weather one year out is genuinely very hard to forecast. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably predict a single day's peak temperature more than about two weeks in advance. The market currently leans toward 19°C at 43%, but 18°C and 20°C together account for more than half the probability, which reflects how spread out the uncertainty is. Amsterdam in late July can range from cool and cloudy to surprisingly warm depending on wind direction and whether a heat system moves in.

The odds right now

• 19°C41%
• 20°C37%
• 18°C13%
• 21°C9%
• 22°C2%
• 17°C2%
• 16°C1%
• 23°C1%
• 25°C or higher0%
• 15°C or below0%
• 24°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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