Highest temperature in NYC on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will New York City get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured at LaGuardia Airport. The market breaks possible answers into ranges: will the peak be in the upper 70s, around 80-81°F, or cooler in the mid-70s? Think of it as picking which band on a thermometer the afternoon heat will land in. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at LaGuardia Airport (station code KLGA) on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the single hottest reading of the day is, whichever 2-degree range it falls into wins. Temperatures are recorded in whole degrees, so no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears, after which no further revisions to the July 21 data are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market, which makes sense given the event is over a year away. The kind of development that would matter closer to the date includes seasonal forecasts, heat wave outlooks from NOAA, or unusually persistent weather patterns entering mid-July 2026. A year out, weather is genuinely impossible to predict with precision. Even professional forecasts are only reliable a week or so in advance. The market currently leans toward 78-79°F, which aligns with typical mid-July highs in NYC, but any given day can run hotter or cooler depending on whether a heat dome, sea breeze, or cold front passes through. The two-degree ranges also mean the outcome could hinge on just one degree of difference.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F35%
• 80-81°F27%
• 76-77°F20%
• 82-83°F17%
• 84-85°F5%
• 74-75°F4%
• 72-73°F0%
• 86-87°F0%
• 71°F or below0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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