Highest temperature in Ankara on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the highest temperature of the day be in Ankara? The three options are 31°C, 32°C, or 33°C, and you are picking which single degree the peak temperature lands on. To put those numbers in everyday terms, 31°C is about 88°F, 32°C is about 90°F, and 33°C is about 91°F. These are all hot summer days, and the question is really just about how hot it gets at the top of the afternoon. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Ankara's Esenboğa Airport weather station on July 22, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a peak of 32.7°C would count as 33°C, for example. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a long-range seasonal forecast for Ankara in late July 2026, or a signal about whether that summer is trending hotter or cooler than average. As the date gets closer, daily weather forecasts for Ankara will become the most useful thing to watch. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 22, 2026 is over a year away. The three options are only one degree apart, which is a very narrow range. A small shift in cloud cover, wind direction, or a passing weather system could easily push the peak from 32°C to 31°C or 33°C. The market's current split, roughly 49% for 32°C, 35% for 33°C, and 14% for 31°C, reflects that even with historical patterns, pinning down a single degree is genuinely uncertain.

The odds right now

• 32°C56%
• 31°C23%
• 33°C17%
• 30°C3%
• 34°C2%
• 29°C1%
• 35°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 27°C or below0%
• 37°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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