Highest temperature in Austin on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature range will contain the single highest reading of the day, measured at Austin's main airport weather station. A 100-101°F outcome means the hottest moment of that day lands somewhere in that two-degree window, while a 98-99°F outcome means the peak stays a bit cooler, and so on for the other ranges listed. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on July 21, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. Whatever whole-degree Fahrenheit reading shows as the day's peak determines which range wins. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 22 appears, confirming the day is complete. Any last-minute corrections to the July 21 data are accepted until that July 22 data point is published, after which the record is locked. No recent news relevant to Austin's July 2026 temperatures was provided. The only headline available is about dengue prevention at universities, which has no connection to this market. The kind of news that would matter here includes long-range weather forecasts for Central Texas in late July, or any emerging pattern like an unusual heat dome or a cooling front expected around that date. Late July in Austin is reliably hot, so extreme cold is not a real possibility, but the difference between a 98°F day and a 101°F day is genuinely hard to pin down more than a year out. Standard weather forecasts only become reliable about two weeks ahead. Beyond that, the margin between these ranges is just two degrees, which is well within normal day-to-day variation from clouds, wind shifts, or humidity. The market currently leans toward 100-101°F at 40%, but the remaining 60% is spread across cooler outcomes, reflecting real spread in what July 21 could bring.

The odds right now

• 100-101°F56%
• 98-99°F22%
• 102-103°F20%
• 96-97°F7%
• 104-105°F2%
• 94-95°F1%
• 106-107°F1%
• 108°F or higher0%
• 89°F or below0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92-93°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.