Highest temperature in Beijing on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Beijing get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Beijing Capital International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. Each option, like 31°C or 32°C, is a temperature bucket, and whichever one matches the actual peak temperature that day wins. Think of it as picking the top number on a thermometer at the end of a summer day. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged on July 22, 2026, at Beijing Capital International Airport, as reported by Weather Underground. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 31.7°C would count as 31°C. It cannot settle until the first data point for July 23 appears on the site, locking in the final reading. Any corrections to the July 22 data made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The only headline in the feed is an unrelated horoscope article. To follow this market meaningfully, you would want to watch Beijing weather forecasts as July 22, 2026 approaches, since short-range forecasts become reliable only within about a week of the date. Weather prediction more than a few days out is genuinely hard, even for meteorologists with full data. The three leading options, 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, are each priced close together, which reflects real uncertainty. Beijing in late July is reliably hot, but the exact daily peak depends on cloud cover, wind, humidity, and whether a weather system passes through. A cooler or hotter outlier day is always possible, and the market spreads probability across many temperature options beyond the top three.

The odds right now

• 30°C24%
• 31°C24%
• 29°C15%
• 32°C14%
• 28°C7%
• 33°C7%
• 27°C3%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C or higher0%
• 26°C0%
• 25°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.