Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the warmest temperature of the day be in Buenos Aires? The three options are 13°C, 14°C, or 15°C, and you are picking which one the thermometer will hit at its highest point. To put that in physical terms: 13°C is a cool winter day where you need a jacket, 14°C is slightly milder but still firmly cold, and 15°C is on the warmer edge of a typical Buenos Aires winter afternoon. July is mid-winter in Argentina, so these are all realistic cool-weather readings. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Ezeiza International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees Celsius, so a reading of, say, 14.7°C counts as 14°C, not 15°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to Buenos Aires weather on July 21, 2026 was provided. The one headline available is about geopolitical events unrelated to this question. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a seasonal weather forecast or a meteorological outlook for the Buenos Aires area in mid-July, neither of which has been supplied. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market's date is still in the future. The three options are close together, just one degree apart, which means a small shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing cold front could easily tip the result from one bucket to another. The market currently leans toward 14°C at 42%, but 13°C and 15°C together account for over half the probability, reflecting real spread in what historical July days at Ezeiza look like.

The odds right now

• 13°C45%
• 14°C37%
• 12°C12%
• 15°C9%
• 11°C2%
• 16°C1%
• 17°C0%
• 10°C0%
• 9°C or below0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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