Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be in Cape Town, measured in whole degrees Celsius at the airport weather station? A Yes on any option means that specific temperature turns out to be the day's peak. July 21 falls in Cape Town's winter, so the city is typically cool and mild, not hot, which is why the options cluster in the mid-to-upper teens rather than summer highs. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. It reads in whole degrees only, so 17.6°C would count as 17°C. The market waits until the first data point from July 22 appears before finalising, meaning any corrections to the July 21 reading made before that cutoff still count. After that point, no further changes are considered. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be seasonal weather outlooks or forecasts for the Western Cape region of South Africa in mid to late July, which would give a clearer signal about whether conditions are trending warmer or cooler than usual for that time of year. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 21, 2026 is still well in the future, so any forecast right now is essentially a guess based on historical averages. The market is spread across three closely bunched options, 16, 17, and 18 degrees, with no single outcome commanding a strong lead. A one-degree difference is within normal day-to-day variability, meaning a passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or a single warm afternoon spell could easily swing the outcome from one bucket to another.

The odds right now

• 17°C47%
• 18°C26%
• 16°C20%
• 19°C7%
• 15°C3%
• 20°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 12°C or below0%
• 13°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 22°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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