Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how warm will Cape Town get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at Cape Town International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. July 22 is deep winter in Cape Town, which is in the Southern Hemisphere, so temperatures in the mid-teens Celsius (roughly 59 to 63 degrees Fahrenheit) are completely normal. The market is essentially asking you to pick which notch on the thermometer the day peaks at. The market settles based on one specific number: the peak temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. Whatever whole-degree Celsius figure appears as the day's high, that is the answer. The result cannot be confirmed until the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections to the July 22 reading are accepted until that moment, and ignored after it. There are no unusual edge cases beyond that timing rule. No recent news was provided that relates to Cape Town weather or this forecast. The two headlines available are about unrelated topics. For this market, the kind of developments worth watching would be extended weather forecasts for Cape Town in the days leading up to July 22, particularly any cold fronts or unusual warm spells moving through the Western Cape region. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, even for professionals with full data access. July is mid-winter in Cape Town, and the city's weather is shaped by Atlantic cold fronts that can shift a day's peak temperature by several degrees depending on timing. The market currently leans toward 16°C at roughly half the probability, with 15°C and 17°C splitting most of the rest. That spread tells you participants see real uncertainty across a three-degree range, which is a fairly honest picture of how unpredictable a single winter day can be.

The odds right now

• 16°C50%
• 15°C24%
• 17°C23%
• 14°C6%
• 18°C5%
• 19°C1%
• 13°C1%
• 12°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 11°C or below0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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