Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chengdu get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport weather station. You pick a temperature, and if the day's peak matches your choice, that answer wins. It is not about averages or overnight lows, just the hottest moment of that one day. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius, so 40.7°C would count as 40°C, not 41°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching would be seasonal forecasts or heat-wave warnings for Chengdu in late July 2026, or any reports about unusually strong or weak summer heat patterns in the Sichuan Basin region as that date approaches. Weather is genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days in advance, and July 22, 2026 is still well over a year away. The three leading options cover 39°C, 40°C, and 41°C, with the market spreading probability fairly evenly across them, which reflects real uncertainty. Chengdu sits in the Sichuan Basin and can see intense summer heat, but daily peaks vary with cloud cover, humidity, and short-term weather patterns that no one can reliably forecast this far out.

The odds right now

• 40°C36%
• 39°C24%
• 41°C22%
• 38°C13%
• 42°C8%
• 37°C3%
• 43°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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