Highest temperature in Dallas on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, how hot will it get in Dallas? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature range the day's peak heat will fall into. Yes or No doesn't apply here the way it does in most markets. Instead, you're picking a bracket: will the hottest moment of that day land between 102-103°F, 104-105°F, 106-107°F, or somewhere else? The winner is whichever range actually contains the single highest temperature recorded that day. At the end of July 21, 2026, the official high temperature at Dallas Love Field Station is looked up on Weather Underground. Whatever that number is, rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit, determines which bracket wins. So if the high is 105°F, the 104-105°F bracket resolves as correct. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on the site. Any last-minute corrections to the July 21 data before that cutoff count, but corrections after that point do not. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. That makes sense given the event is over a year away. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: extended-range weather forecasts for North Texas in late July, and any developing patterns like a strong heat dome or La Nina or El Nino conditions that tend to push Dallas summers hotter or cooler than normal. Late July in Dallas is reliably hot, so the real question is how extreme that particular day gets. The market currently leans toward the 104-105°F range at 39%, but 106-107°F commands 20%, meaning the market treats a genuinely scorching day as a real possibility too. A full year out, no forecast can pin down a single day's high with confidence. One passing storm, a shift in wind direction, or a persistent heat dome could easily push the result one bracket higher or lower.

The odds right now

• 104-105°F45%
• 106-107°F27%
• 102-103°F21%
• 100-101°F4%
• 108-109°F4%
• 110-111°F1%
• 99°F or below0%
• 112-113°F0%
• 114-115°F0%
• 116-117°F0%
• 118°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Dallas Love Field Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.