Highest temperature in Denver on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Denver get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it asks you to pick the two-degree temperature band that will contain the day's peak temperature, measured at Buckley Space Force Base, which is a weather station in the Aurora suburb of Denver. A 'Yes' for the 92-93°F band means the hottest reading that day falls somewhere in that range, and the same logic applies to each other band. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base weather station on July 21, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree. The reading is locked in once the first data point from July 22 appears, so late corrections made after that cutoff do not count. Whichever two-degree band contains that final peak reading is the one that resolves as the winner. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. That is completely normal for a weather question more than a year away. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for Colorado in mid-July, any developing climate patterns like an unusually strong heat dome, and of course short-range weather forecasts in the days leading up to July 21, 2026. Long-range weather forecasting is genuinely hard. Even professional forecasters cannot reliably predict a specific day's high temperature more than about two weeks out, let alone a year away. The three leading bands together only cover a six-degree range, and Denver summers can swing outside that window. The market is spread across the 92-95°F range, with 90-91°F holding meaningful probability too, which honestly reflects how wide the real uncertainty is this far from the date.

The odds right now

• 94-95°F46%
• 92-93°F22%
• 96-97°F20%
• 90-91°F6%
• 88-89°F2%
• 98-99°F2%
• 86-87°F1%
• 100-101°F1%
• 85°F or below0%
• 102-103°F0%
• 104°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Buckley Space Force Base Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/aurora/KBKF. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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