Highest temperature in Houston on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Houston get on July 22, 2026, at its peak? Specifically, it's asking which temperature range the single hottest reading of that day will fall into. A result in the 100-101°F range means the day peaked somewhere in that two-degree window, 102-103°F means it was hotter still, and 98-99°F means it stayed a bit cooler than the others. Think of it as guessing the top number on a thermometer for one specific summer day in Houston. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at William P. Hobby Airport in Houston on July 22, 2026, measured in whole-degree Fahrenheit. The data comes from Weather Underground's records for that station. Whichever bracket contains that peak reading wins. One thing worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point for July 23 is published before it officially closes, so very late-day readings can still count. Temperature revisions made before that cutoff also count, but any corrections made after do not. There is no specific recent news available for this market. Because the date is still more than a year away, the most relevant things to watch for closer to July 22, 2026 would be extended weather forecasts for Houston, any seasonal heat outlooks from the National Weather Service, and whether conditions like drought or a heat dome are shaping up over Texas that summer. July in Houston is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters around 100-103°F rather than lower ranges. But the exact peak on one specific day is genuinely hard to pin down this far out. A passing cloud, afternoon thunderstorm, or shift in wind direction can move a daily high by several degrees. The market currently prices 100-101°F as the most likely outcome at 41%, with 102-103°F close behind at 34%, so the real question is less about whether it will be hot and more about exactly how hot.

The odds right now

• 100-101°F43%
• 102-103°F33%
• 98-99°F17%
• 104-105°F10%
• 106°F or higher2%
• 96-97°F1%
• 92-93°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 94-95°F0%
• 87°F or below0%
• 88-89°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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