Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day in Istanbul? The three options are 28°C (about 82°F), 29°C (about 84°F), or 30°C (about 86°F). It is not asking about the average temperature or the overnight low, just the single highest reading recorded that day. The market currently puts the most weight on 28°C, with 29°C close behind, and 30°C as the least expected outcome. The market settles based on one specific data source: NOAA's hourly temperature readings from Istanbul Airport (station code LTFM). Whoever runs the market looks at every temperature recorded on July 22, 2026, finds the single highest whole-number reading in Celsius, and picks the matching option. The key detail: temperatures are rounded to whole degrees, so 28.7°C counts as 28°C, not 29°C. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 23 appears, confirming the day is fully recorded. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market like this, what would matter most as the date approaches is seasonal forecast data for Istanbul in late July, any unusually warm or cool air patterns over the eastern Mediterranean, and official meteorological outlooks for the region. July weather is genuinely hard to pin down more than a day or two in advance, and this market is more than a year away. Istanbul in late July is typically hot, but daily peaks vary based on wind direction, cloud cover, and whether a heat wave is passing through. The gap between 28°C and 29°C is just one degree, which is a very small margin. A slightly stronger sea breeze or a thin layer of cloud at the wrong hour could easily shift the peak reading from one bucket to another.

The odds right now

• 29°C32%
• 30°C25%
• 28°C19%
• 31°C13%
• 27°C7%
• 32°C6%
• 33°C3%
• 26°C1%
• 34°C or higher1%
• 25°C0%
• 24°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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