Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at the weather station at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX)? The three options cover a narrow range, roughly from the upper 70s to the lower 80s Fahrenheit. A win for '80-81°F' means the peak temperature that day lands in that two-degree window, a win for '82-83°F' means it ran a bit hotter, and a win for '78-79°F' means it stayed a touch cooler. The market settles based on a single official reading: the highest temperature logged at the LAX weather station on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit, so a reading of 80.9°F would count as 80°F. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on Weather Underground. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. Since the date is still over a year away, that is not surprising. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for Southern California in mid-July, any emerging weather patterns like a heat dome or unusual marine layer activity, and updated historical temperature data for LAX around this time of year. Even a single day's high temperature at one specific station is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. July in coastal Los Angeles is shaped by a marine layer that rolls in from the Pacific, and small shifts in that layer can swing the daily high by several degrees. The market is fairly concentrated on 80-81°F at roughly half the odds, but the remaining half is split between warmer and cooler outcomes, reflecting real spread. Long-range weather forecasting at this precision is, honestly, close to impossible.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F39%
• 78-79°F30%
• 82-83°F25%
• 84-85°F7%
• 76-77°F4%
• 74-75°F1%
• 86-87°F0%
• 73°F or below0%
• 88-89°F0%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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