Highest temperature in Manila on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will the hottest reading of the day be at Manila's main airport? The three options are 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C, and you are picking which single degree the peak temperature lands on. To picture it: 33°C is around 91°F, a hot and humid tropical afternoon. The market currently leans toward 33°C as the most likely outcome, but 32°C is close behind, and 34°C is considered less likely though still possible. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the single highest reading recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on July 21, 2026, according to Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 32.7°C would count as 32°C, not 33°C. The final answer is locked in once the first data point for July 22 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal weather forecast for Manila in late July 2026, or any updates about unusual climate patterns in the Philippines around that time, such as an active typhoon season or a stronger-than-normal heat period. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 21, 2026 is well over a year away. Manila in late July sits in its rainy season, where cloud cover and rainfall can keep temperatures lower than expected, but humid heat can still push readings up on clear days. The three options are separated by just one degree each, which means even a small forecast error lands you in the wrong bucket. The closeness of the 33°C and 32°C odds reflects how narrow these margins really are.

The odds right now

• 33°C100%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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