Highest temperature in Manila on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Manila get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the weather station inside Ninoy Aquino International Airport. The three options are 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C, which in rough everyday terms means the difference between a very hot day, a scorching day, and an extremely scorching day. The market currently leans toward 33°C as the most likely outcome, with 41% odds. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the peak reading recorded at the NAIA airport weather station on July 22, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so a reading of 33.7°C would count as 33°C, not 34°C. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before it can officially close, to allow for any last-minute corrections to that day's readings. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is a seasonal forecast update for the Philippines in July 2026, or a pattern suggesting whether that specific week will be hotter or cooler than average. Without that, the market is working mainly from historical temperature patterns for Manila in late July. Late July in Manila is deep in the rainy season, which actually complicates things. Cloud cover and rain can cool a day down, but humid, overcast days can still stay very warm. The gap between the three options is just a single degree each, which is a very small margin. A passing storm, an unusually clear morning, or a shift in wind patterns could tip the day from one bucket to another. Small weather swings that most people would barely notice are exactly what determine the outcome here.

The odds right now

• 33°C42%
• 32°C27%
• 34°C26%
• 35°C11%
• 31°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C or below0%
• 37°C0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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