Highest temperature in Miami on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will Miami get on July 21, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Miami International Airport. The three choices are ranges: 90-91°F, 92-93°F, or 94-95°F. Think of it as picking which band on a thermometer the afternoon peak will land in. For context, 92-93°F is a typical hot summer day in Miami, while 94-95°F is notably hotter than average. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged at Miami International Airport on July 21, 2026, as published on Weather Underground's station page for KMIA. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Fahrenheit, and whichever of the three ranges contains that number wins. The market waits until at least one data point from July 22 appears on the site before finalizing, giving time for any late corrections to the July 21 record to be captured. None of the provided news headlines relate to Miami weather or temperature forecasts. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any extended forecast for South Florida around July 21, 2026, or news about unusual heat events or tropical weather systems affecting the region closer to that date. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and a single day's peak temperature can shift several degrees based on cloud cover, sea breeze timing, or a nearby storm. The market currently favors 92-93°F at around 52%, meaning even the leading range has nearly a coin-flip chance of being wrong. The ranges are narrow, just two degrees each, so even a small forecast error puts the outcome in a different bracket. The main uncertainty is simply normal meteorological variability.

The odds right now

• 92-93°F63%
• 90-91°F24%
• 94-95°F8%
• 88-89°F2%
• 96-97°F1%
• 98-99°F1%
• 86-87°F1%
• 100-101°F0%
• 83°F or below0%
• 84-85°F0%
• 102°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.