Highest temperature in Miami on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, how hot will it get in Miami? Specifically, it asks which temperature range will contain the single highest reading of the day at Miami International Airport. A result of 92-93°F means a fairly typical hot Miami summer day, 90-91°F means slightly cooler than average for July, and 94-95°F means an unusually hot day even by Miami standards. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the peak temperature recorded that day at Miami International Airport, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit, and whichever two-degree range contains that number wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears on that page before officially closing, so very late temperature revisions on the 22nd can still count. No recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market like this, what would matter most as the date approaches are seasonal forecasts, any unusual heat patterns in the Atlantic or Gulf region, and closer to July 22, the actual short-range weather forecast for Miami. Those signals won't be meaningful until much closer to the date. Miami in late July is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters tightly around 92-93°F. But daily highs still vary by a few degrees depending on cloud cover, sea breeze timing, and whether a storm passes through. A single afternoon thunderstorm can cap the high temperature noticeably lower than expected. The honest challenge here is that two or three degrees of natural daily variation is exactly the width of each range, so small shifts in conditions can change the outcome entirely.

The odds right now

• 92-93°F54%
• 90-91°F33%
• 94-95°F10%
• 88-89°F3%
• 96-97°F1%
• 84-85°F1%
• 98-99°F1%
• 86-87°F0%
• 82-83°F0%
• 81°F or below0%
• 100°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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