Highest temperature in Munich on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 22, 2026 feel like at Munich's airport, in whole degrees Celsius? Each option is a specific temperature, and only one will match what the thermometer actually reads at its peak that day. A 'Yes' on 25°C means the day's highest recorded temperature lands exactly on 25, not 24, not 26. The market currently places the highest chance, around 41%, on 25°C, with 24°C close behind at 32%, and 26°C further back at 16%. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Munich Airport Station on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The temperature is rounded to a whole number, so 24.7°C would count as 24°C, not 25°C. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. The market cannot close until that next-day data appears. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would matter most is closer-range weather forecasting and seasonal outlooks for Bavaria in late July, neither of which is meaningful at this distance. Summer temperatures in Munich are genuinely hard to pin down more than a few days out, let alone a year ahead. Late July can bring warm stable highs, but also cool spells or thunderstorm breaks that pull temperatures down. A single degree is a very narrow target: the difference between 24°C and 25°C at the peak of the day can come down to cloud cover for an hour. The spread across the three main options reflects that honest uncertainty, and temperatures outside all three options are also possible.

The odds right now

• 24°C39%
• 25°C30%
• 23°C17%
• 26°C15%
• 27°C5%
• 22°C1%
• 28°C or higher0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C0%
• 21°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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