Highest temperature in Panama City on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Panama City get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at one airport weather station, measured in whole degrees Celsius. A result of 31°C means the peak heat that day lands in that range, roughly 88°F. The three options on the table are 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, which are all fairly close together and all within the normal warm range for Panama City in July. After July 22, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground website for the Marcos A. Gelabert International Airport station. They look at the single highest temperature recorded across all hours of that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. One timing detail worth knowing: the market waits until the first data point of July 23 appears on that site before settling, and any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count. Corrections after that point do not. None of the provided news headlines relate to Panama City weather or regional climate conditions. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of update that would matter is a forecast for Panama City around July 22, or any news about an unusual heat event or tropical weather system affecting Central America around that date. The three leading options are separated by just one or two degrees, which is a genuinely small difference in day-to-day weather. July is deep in Panama's rainy season, and cloud cover or an afternoon storm can easily push the daily peak temperature a degree lower than a sunny day would. The market currently leans toward 31°C at 35%, with 30°C close behind at 29%, reflecting real uncertainty across a tight range. Since the date is still about a year away, reliable forecasts do not exist yet, making this almost entirely a question of historical patterns rather than current information.

The odds right now

• 31°C37%
• 30°C28%
• 32°C18%
• 29°C14%
• 28°C4%
• 33°C2%
• 27°C1%
• 34°C1%
• 35°C or higher1%
• 26°C0%
• 25°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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