Highest temperature in Paris on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Paris? Specifically, it asks you to pick the peak temperature recorded that day at a real weather station near Paris. A result of 27°C means a warm summer day, around 81°F. A result of 28°C is a little hotter, closer to 82°F. A result of 26°C is slightly cooler, around 79°F. The three options cover a narrow band of typical mid-summer Paris temperatures. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded on July 22, 2026, at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport weather station, as published on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option contains that number wins. The market cannot close until the first reading from July 23 appears, so any last-minute corrections to the July 22 data before that cutoff still count. After that cutoff, corrections are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Weather forecasts for a date more than a year away do not exist in any reliable form, so there is genuinely nothing meaningful to report right now. What would matter closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for summer 2026 in France, and especially any short-range weather forecasts in the week before July 22. Weather is inherently hard to predict even a few days out, let alone over a year away. The three options here are separated by just one degree each, which is a very small margin. A passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or a heat wave arriving a day early or late could easily push the reading from 26°C to 28°C. The market spreads its odds fairly evenly across all three options, which honestly reflects that nobody can know this far in advance. The closer to July 22 the market gets, the more meaningful the odds will become.

The odds right now

• 26°C38%
• 27°C37%
• 25°C15%
• 28°C12%
• 24°C2%
• 29°C2%
• 30°C or higher1%
• 23°C1%
• 20°C or below0%
• 21°C0%
• 22°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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