Lowest temperature in Paris on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the coldest temperature reading be in Paris on July 22, 2026, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? The three options are 13°C, 14°C, or 15°C, which in everyday terms is roughly 55 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit, the kind of cool you might feel in Paris during a summer night or early morning. The coldest point of the day is almost always in the hours just before sunrise, so this is really a question about how cool that pre-dawn window gets. The market settles based on the single lowest temperature reading recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on July 22, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the coldest reading is that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius, determines the winning option. The data is locked in once the first reading from July 23 appears, so any corrections published after that point do not count. One thing worth noting: this uses an airport weather station specifically, not a city-center reading, so results could differ slightly from what you see on a general Paris forecast. The only recent news provided is about a medical story involving MRI scans, which has no connection to this weather market. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kind of development that would matter is a medium-range weather forecast for Paris around July 22, 2026, specifically nighttime low temperatures, but reliable forecasts that far out do not yet exist. Summer night temperatures in Paris are genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 22, 2026 is still over a year away. The three leading options, 13°C, 14°C, and 15°C, are all bunched closely together, separated by just one degree each. A single weather system passing through, or even just cloud cover versus a clear sky, can shift the overnight low by that margin. The market is fairly spread across all three options, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear frontrunner.

The odds right now

• 14°C38%
• 13°C28%
• 15°C20%
• 12°C9%
• 16°C4%
• 11°C2%
• 10°C or below0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C0%
• 20°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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