Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the hottest temperature of the day be in São Paulo? Specifically, it uses the weather station at Guarulhos International Airport as the measuring point. The three options are 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C, and you are picking which single degree the daily high lands on. July is winter in São Paulo, so these are cool-weather temperatures, not a summer heatwave scenario. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground page for the Guarulhos airport station and reads the highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before settling, to make sure the full day is captured. Any late corrections to the July 22 reading are accepted up until that point, then frozen. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of development worth watching for would be seasonal climate forecasts for winter 2026 in southeastern Brazil, or any unusual weather pattern signals like a strong El Niño or La Niña forming closer to that date. Weather prediction more than a year out is genuinely hard, even for professional forecasters. São Paulo's winter highs in late July can vary by several degrees from one year to the next depending on cold fronts, wind patterns, and humidity. The market currently puts 28°C as the most likely outcome at 45%, with 27°C and 29°C both still meaningful possibilities. The main honest uncertainty here is simply that no one can reliably forecast a single day's high temperature this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 28°C47%
• 27°C23%
• 29°C22%
• 26°C9%
• 30°C3%
• 25°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 32°C or higher1%
• 24°C0%
• 23°C0%
• 22°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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