Highest temperature in Seattle on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Seattle get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, and which 2-degree range that peak lands in. The three main options are 90-91°F, 92-93°F, or 94-95°F, which in everyday terms covers the range from a hot summer day to a genuinely scorching one for Seattle. After July 22, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market will check the Weather Underground website for the official Seattle-Tacoma Airport station reading and find the highest temperature recorded at any point that day. Whatever whole-number Fahrenheit reading shows up, they match it to the correct range, and that range wins. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears before settling, so any last-minute corrections to July 22 data can still count. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would matter most is a seasonal forecast for the Pacific Northwest summer of 2026, or updates on long-range climate patterns like El Niño or La Niña, which can shift how hot Pacific Northwest summers tend to run. Summer heat in Seattle is genuinely hard to forecast more than a few days out, let alone a year ahead. The Pacific Northwest can swing between mild and extreme heat depending on atmospheric patterns that nobody can reliably predict this far in advance. The market currently leans toward 92-93°F, but the 90-91 and 94-95 ranges each carry real probability too. The main honest uncertainty here is simply that a single day's peak temperature, a year out, is close to a coin toss across a narrow band of outcomes.

The odds right now

• 92-93°F40%
• 90-91°F27%
• 94-95°F25%
• 88-89°F5%
• 96-97°F5%
• 86-87°F2%
• 98-99°F1%
• 84-85°F0%
• 100-101°F0%
• 83°F or below0%
• 102°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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