Highest temperature in Singapore on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: what will be the hottest temperature of the day at Singapore's Changi Airport on July 22, 2026? The three options are 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C. The market currently puts 31°C as the most likely answer at 45%, meaning that is where most participants have placed their confidence, but 30°C and 32°C are both live possibilities. Think of it as a group forecast for one specific thermometer on one specific day. After July 22, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground website for the single highest temperature recorded that day at Changi Airport Station, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option, 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C, contains that number wins. The market waits until the first data point from July 23 appears on that site before settling, to allow any last-minute corrections to the day's readings. Once that next-day data appears, no further revisions to July 22 readings are accepted. None of the provided news headlines relate to Singapore's weather or climate conditions. There is no recent weather data to point to here. What would actually matter to watch is any forecast from Singapore's Meteorological Service in the days leading up to July 22, or reports of unusual heat or cloud cover in the region around that date. Singapore sits near the equator, so July temperatures are consistently warm and rarely extreme, which is why all three options cluster in a narrow 3-degree range. The honest difficulty is that daily peak temperatures are sensitive to small things: cloud cover at noon, a brief rain shower, or a slightly windier afternoon can shift the reading by a degree or two. A single degree decides the outcome here, and that kind of precision is genuinely hard to forecast even 24 hours out, let alone a year ahead.

The odds right now

• 31°C46%
• 30°C31%
• 32°C15%
• 29°C8%
• 33°C3%
• 28°C1%
• 34°C0%
• 27°C0%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%
• 35°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Singapore Changi Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Singapore Changi Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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