Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Tokyo get on July 21, 2026, specifically at Haneda Airport? The three options are peak temperatures of 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C for the day, which translate roughly to 93°F, 95°F, and 97°F. July 21 is deep in Tokyo's summer, so these are all plausible hot days. The question is simply which single-degree bucket the afternoon high falls into, as recorded by the official weather station at Haneda. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 21, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. Whatever the peak reading is for that whole day, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, determines the winning option. The data locks in once the first reading from July 22 is published. Any small corrections to July 21 data before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. None of the provided news is relevant to this market. The headline listed concerns an Indian parliamentary session and has no connection to Tokyo weather. The kind of news that would actually matter here includes seasonal forecasts, typhoon activity near Japan, or heat wave warnings from the Japan Meteorological Agency in the days leading up to July 21. Tokyo summer temperatures are genuinely hard to pin down to a single degree a year in advance. The market splits fairly evenly across 34°C, 35°C, and 36°C, which reflects real uncertainty: all three outcomes are historically normal for late July in Tokyo. A passing cloud, a nearby typhoon, or an unexpected heat dome can shift the peak by a few degrees. Because the winning option is determined by just one degree of difference, even a small forecast error lands you in the wrong bucket.

The odds right now

• 36°C28%
• 35°C23%
• 34°C23%
• 37°C12%
• 33°C6%
• 38°C or higher3%
• 32°C2%
• 31°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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