Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: how hot will Tokyo get on July 22, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day at Tokyo's Haneda Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. You pick a temperature, and if the thermometer peaks at that number on that day, that option wins. Think of it like guessing the top of the thermometer for one summer day in one of the world's biggest cities. The market settles based on the peak temperature recorded at Tokyo Haneda Airport Station on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. It uses whole-number Celsius readings only, so 35.7°C would count as 35°C, not 36°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any small corrections to the July 22 data are allowed before that cutoff, but not after. There is no cancellation clause mentioned. No relevant recent news was provided. The one headline available is unrelated to Tokyo or weather. What would actually matter here is closer-to-date weather forecasts for Tokyo in late July 2026, or any climate reports about unusual heat patterns in Japan that summer. Those are worth watching as the date approaches. Late July in Tokyo is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters tightly around 34 to 36°C. But daily peak temperatures are genuinely hard to pin down even a week out, let alone a year out. A passing typhoon, unexpected cloud cover, or a shift in the Pacific high-pressure system can swing the peak by several degrees. The three leading options together only account for about 79% of the market, meaning roughly one in five participants expects something outside that range entirely.

The odds right now

• 35°C39%
• 36°C27%
• 34°C18%
• 37°C14%
• 33°C3%
• 38°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 39°C or higher1%
• 31°C1%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.