Highest temperature in Toronto on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 21, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day at Toronto's Pearson International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius? Participants pick a temperature, and whoever picks the correct one wins. It is not a yes/no question but a multiple-choice one, with each possible temperature carrying its own odds. Right now the crowd slightly favors 26°C as the most likely daily high, followed by 27°C and then 25°C. After July 21, 2026 ends, the market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded that day at Toronto Pearson Airport, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The number used will be rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 26.7°C would count as 27°C, for example. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 22 appears on that site before settling, to allow any late corrections to the July 21 data to be captured. No relevant news was provided for this market. That is normal for a near-term weather question. The kinds of updates that would actually matter here are short-range weather forecasts for the Toronto area on July 21, 2026, particularly any forecast high temperatures or signals of a heat event or an unusually cool day. Weather is genuinely hard to pin to a single degree, even one day out. July in Toronto typically sees highs in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius, but any shift in wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing weather system can push the actual high several degrees in either direction. The spread across three leading options (25, 26, and 27°C) reflects that uncertainty well. Even the best forecasts carry meaningful error margins at this precision, so the outcome stays open until the day itself.

The odds right now

• 26°C35%
• 27°C35%
• 28°C18%
• 25°C12%
• 24°C5%
• 29°C2%
• 23°C or below1%
• 30°C1%
• 31°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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