Highest temperature in Wellington on July 22?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 22, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Wellington Airport in New Zealand? Wellington is in the Southern Hemisphere, so July is the middle of winter there, which is why the options cluster around 13 to 15 degrees Celsius, roughly 55 to 59 degrees Fahrenheit. A chilly winter day, in other words. The three options represent three possible temperature bands, and whichever one contains the actual recorded high wins. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at Wellington International Airport Station on July 22, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number used will be a whole degree Celsius, no decimals. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 23 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; any corrections made after do not. There is no human judgment involved, just the number on that specific webpage. No recent news was provided that relates to Wellington's weather or this forecast. The two headlines given are about dengue outbreaks and an African gas pipeline, which have no bearing on this question. To follow this market, the thing worth watching would be New Zealand weather forecasts for Wellington in the days leading up to July 22, 2026. Winter temperatures in Wellington genuinely bounce around day to day. The market splits almost evenly between 13°C and 14°C, with a small chance of 15°C, which shows real uncertainty even between the two leading options. Wellington is famously windy and changeable, so a cold front or a brief sunny break can shift the daily high by a couple of degrees easily. July 22, 2026 is still far enough away that no forecast could reliably pin down a single degree with confidence.

The odds right now

• 13°C54%
• 14°C36%
• 15°C10%
• 12°C5%
• 11°C1%
• 16°C1%
• 10°C0%
• 9°C or below0%
• 17°C0%
• 18°C0%
• 19°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 22, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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