How many 5.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or stronger will happen anywhere on Earth during one specific week: August 3 through August 9, 2026. A magnitude 5.5 quake is strong enough to be felt widely and cause minor damage in populated areas. The market is not asking about one big event but counting all qualifying quakes across the whole planet during those seven days. You pick a number range, and whichever range matches the final USGS count wins. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is the official judge. It keeps a public database of all earthquakes worldwide, and the count of events at magnitude 5.5 or above during the specified window determines which outcome wins. One important detail: if a quake happens on the last day, the market may stay open an extra 24 hours to allow for magnitude revisions, since scientists sometimes adjust readings after the initial report. The final number used is whatever USGS shows after that review period. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a question like this, what would matter most is any unusual seismic activity in the days or weeks leading up to the window, such as a major ongoing aftershock sequence or elevated activity in a historically active region. Without that context, the main reference point is the historical average, which the market odds appear to reflect. The core challenge is that earthquakes are genuinely random and unpredictable at this timescale. Scientists cannot forecast how many magnitude 5.5-plus quakes will occur in a given week. Historically, Earth averages roughly 6 to 10 such quakes per week, but the actual count in any single week varies considerably. A single major quake can trigger a long aftershock sequence and push the count much higher. The market's spread across several number ranges reflects that real unpredictability, not a close contest between two known forces.

The odds right now

• ≤634%
• 713%
• 812%
• 911%
• >1310%
• 109%
• 117%
• 137%
• 127%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 10, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 3, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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