How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many significant earthquakes shake the planet during a single week in July 2026. A magnitude 6.5 earthquake is a strong quake, big enough to cause serious damage near its epicenter. The question is simply: does even one happen during that seven-day window? The "0" outcome means the week passes quietly, with no quake reaching that size anywhere on Earth. The "1" outcome means at least one does. The USGS, the official U.S. government agency that tracks earthquakes worldwide, is the source of truth here. If their public list shows zero quakes of 6.5 or above between July 20 and July 26, 2026, the market settles as "0". If one or more appear, it settles as "1". One important detail: if a borderline quake happens on the last day, the market can stay open an extra 24 hours to wait for the USGS to finalize its magnitude reading, since early estimates sometimes change. No specific recent news was matched to this market. The kind of development that would matter here is any major seismic event in known active zones, like the Pacific Ring of Fire, which could signal heightened regional activity, but earthquake prediction at short time scales remains genuinely unreliable even for scientists. The market currently prices the chance of zero major earthquakes at around 90%, reflecting that most individual weeks do pass without a 6.5-plus event. But Earth produces roughly 10 to 15 earthquakes of this size every year, so they are not rare across months. The core difficulty is that no one can reliably predict when or where a major quake will strike. The main uncertainty here is simply whether a random, unpredictable geological event happens to fall within this specific seven-day window.

The odds right now

• 090%
• 111%
• 21%
• 31%
• 40%
• 50%
• >50%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 26, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 20, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and July 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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