How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or stronger will happen anywhere on Earth during a specific seven-day window in late July and early August 2026. A magnitude 6.5 quake is a serious one: strong enough to cause significant damage near the epicenter and to be felt across a wide region. The market offers three outcomes: zero quakes in that range, exactly one, or two or more. You pick whichever count you think matches reality at the end of that week. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program is the official source for settling this market. After the window closes on August 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market counts how many earthquakes at 6.5 magnitude or above appear in that USGS database. The market can stay open a few extra days if a borderline quake needs time to be confirmed or revised. One important edge case: if a quake happens right at the end of the window, the market may wait up to 24 hours before finalizing, because magnitude readings sometimes get updated shortly after an event. No relevant earthquake news was provided for this market. The one headline given is about a university dispute and has no connection to seismic activity. To follow this market, the thing worth watching is the USGS live earthquake feed, which updates in real time and would show any 6.5-plus events as they occur during the July 27 to August 2 window. Earthquakes are genuinely unpredictable, even to the best seismologists in the world, so this is a hard market by nature. Historically, the Earth produces roughly a handful of 6.5-plus quakes per month on average, which is why the market prices zero at about 49% and one at 32%. But any given week can easily land at zero, one, or two depending purely on chance. There is no signal, trend, or news that lets anyone forecast a specific week with real confidence. The uncertainty here is fundamental, not just informational.

The odds right now

• 048%
• 131%
• 218%
• 32%
• 42%
• 52%
• >50%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 3, 2026

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between July 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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