How many dissent at the January Fed meeting?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how many members of the Federal Reserve's top decision-making committee will publicly disagree with the group's interest rate decision in January 2027. The Fed sets interest rates by committee vote, and most members usually vote together, but sometimes one or more members break from the group to register an official dissent. A result of '0' means everyone agreed, '1' means one person disagreed, '3' means three people disagreed, and so on. The market settles based on the official vote count published in the FOMC's policy statement, released at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, 2027. That statement always lists the names of anyone who voted differently from the majority on the interest rate decision. The number of those dissenting votes is exactly what decides the outcome here. The market can resolve as soon as that official statement is out, or based on consistent credible reporting that confirms the same count. No relevant news was provided for this market. The meeting itself is in January 2027, which is still well in the future. The kinds of developments worth watching for would be signals of internal disagreement among Fed officials, major shifts in inflation or employment data, or public speeches where committee members express views that differ from current Fed policy. Fed dissents are genuinely rare and hard to predict well in advance. The current odds are spread fairly evenly across 0, 1, and 3 dissents, which reflects real uncertainty. The composition of the committee can change, the economic landscape between now and January 2027 is unknown, and internal disagreements often only become visible close to a meeting. With over a year still to go, almost anything could shift the internal dynamics of the committee.

The odds right now

• 126%
• 325%
• 019%
• 4+18%
• 215%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 27, 2027

The January Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2027. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on January 27, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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