How many of these Sanders endorsees will win their August 4 Primaries (Michigan and Missouri)?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks how many of four specific Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidates will win their Democratic primary elections on August 4, 2026. Sanders endorsed Abdul El-Sayed (Michigan Senate), Cori Bush (Missouri House), William Lawrence (Michigan House, 7th district), and Donavan McKinney (Michigan House, 13th district). A 'Yes' for three means exactly three of the four win their races; a 'Yes' for four means all four win. The market is not asking whether Sanders himself wins anything, only how his chosen candidates perform. The market settles based on official primary results from Michigan and Missouri state election authorities, or credible news reporting. Each of the four named candidates either wins or loses their primary, and the final count of winners determines which outcome resolves. Runoff wins count too. One important edge case: if any race has no formally declared nominee by November 2, 2026, that candidate is counted as a loss for this market, even if results are still pending. Also, if a candidate drops out, the market ignores that and still counts them as a non-winner. One relevant headline from August 2, 2026 notes a Michigan Democratic primary showdown is testing party divisions over Israel, Gaza, and the party's future direction, which directly touches the races in this market. The other headlines in the provided list cover completely unrelated topics and are not relevant here. That single headline suggests the Michigan races are genuinely contested and ideologically charged, but no specific polling numbers or candidate momentum details were provided. The market currently leans toward exactly three of the four winning, at 72%, with all four winning at 28%. The main uncertainty is which single candidate falls short, or whether all four actually make it. Primary electorates are small and hard to poll accurately. Cori Bush previously lost a primary in 2024, so her race carries real uncertainty. The Michigan races involve candidates challenging establishment figures in an environment where Gaza and Israel are dividing Democratic voters in ways that are genuinely difficult to model. Small turnout swings can flip results.

The odds right now

• 372%
• 428%
• 22%
• 10%
• 00%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

Bernie Sanders has endorsed Abdul El-Sayed, Cori Bush, William Lawrence, and Donavan McKinney in contested Senate and Congressional primary races that are scheduled to be held on August 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of candidates, among those listed below, who win their primaries, inclusive of any runoff elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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